Experts Talk: Predicting the Cybersecurity Landscape in 2024
Spiceworks News & Insights brings you expert insights on what to expect in cybersecurity in 2024.
- Cybersecurity is an ever-evolving process that can never be ‘complete’ in the exact sense.
- The recent trends include the cloud-driven adoption of automation and artificial intelligence, zero trust, and other technologies.
- As we close the year, Spiceworks News & Insights brings you expert insights on what to expect in cybersecurity in 2024.
Looking back at 2023, artificial intelligence (AI) takes the cake for being the most influential emerging technology. Organizations are looking for new ways to include AI to boost productivity and ensure scalability. Organizations also aspire to make AI a cornerstone of their cybersecurity strategy as threat actors realize the potential of the technology.
As we wrap up the year, it is judicious to understand what the upcoming year holds regarding AI’s role in cybersecurity. Looking ahead, Spiceworks News & Insights brings you expert insights on what to expect in cybersecurity in 2024.
Expert Predictions for AI in Cybersecurity in 2024
1. Arti Raman, CEO and founder of Portal26 on AI adoption
“Going into 2024, investments in AI governance and visibility technology will play a significant role in widespread AI adoption,” Raman said, highlighting the importance of using it right and gaining valuable insight and visibility while minimizing misuse.
Before companies can effectively and safely use generative AI tools, employees must be educated on utilizing best practices: writing prompts that achieve desired outcomes, keeping data security and privacy in mind when inputting data, identifying the quality and security of AI, verifying AI output, and more.
By investing in AI governance tools and developing complimentary guardrails, companies can avoid what may end up being the biggest misconception in 2024: the assumption that you can control the adoption of AI.”
2. Aiden executives on how organizations can use AI in cybersecurity
Josh Aaron, CEO at Aiden, said, “In 2024, AI and machine learning will play a critical role in enhancing various aspects of endpoint management and vulnerability management. This includes a significant focus on the deployment phase of software.”
“AI-driven tools will be instrumental in scrutinizing code for potential security flaws during development and ensuring secure configurations during deployment. This enhanced scrutiny is vital for deploying software with greater efficacy, ensuring vulnerabilities are identified and mitigated before they become threats.”
“Additionally, AI’s role extends to incident response capabilities. In the event of a breach, AI can facilitate rapid actions such as wiping and rebuilding affected systems or reconfiguring settings to eliminate threats and restore security. This rapid response minimizes downtime and mitigates the risk of further exploitation.”
Joe Fousek, legal technology evangelist at Aiden, highlighted that the turnaround time for exploitation can be expected to drop dramatically as bad actors learn to use AI.
“Manual patching and common deployment tools will struggle to keep up with escalating update cycles and new attack vectors. However, continuous updates that take advantage of AI and hyperautomation can decrease the severity and frequency of service interruptions,” Fousek said. A possible solution is forcing people to apply security updates, like Apple.
Aaron added, “Furthermore, the integration of AI into the development process, particularly in the CI/CD pipeline, is crucial. AI technologies in these early stages allow for the early detection and mitigation of vulnerabilities within the software supply chain. This proactive approach ensures that the software is fundamentally secure from the beginning. The combination of AI’s application in software deployment, vulnerability mitigation, and incident response showcases a comprehensive and advanced approach to cybersecurity.”
See More: API Security Trends and Projections for 2024
3. Javed Hasan, CEO and co-founder, Lineaje on AI’s impact on the software supply chain
“Organizations’ inability to identify the lineage of AI will lead to an increase in software supply chain attacks in 2024,” Hasan predicts.
“Over the course of the last year, organizations have been heavily focused on how to prevent cyberattacks on AI. There’s only one problem: everyone is focusing on the wrong aspect. Many security teams have zeroed in on threats against AI once it’s deployed. Organizations are concerned about a threat actor using AI to prompt engineering, IT, or security to take action that could lead to a compromise.”
“The truth is that the best time to compromise AI is when it is being built. Much like most of today’s software, AI is primarily built from open-source software. The ability to determine who created the initial AI models, with what bias, and which developer with what intent is, by and large, far more critical to prevent gaps in an organization’s security posture.”
“I suspect that few organizations have considered this approach, and as a result, we’ll see all kinds of interesting challenges and issues emerge in the coming months.”
4. Ed Skoudis, faculty At IANS Research, president at Sans Technology Institute & founder Of Counter Hack on AI and elections
The sophistication of generative AI, especially multimodal ones, is evident with several doctored videos, audio, and messages flooding social media. This will only rise next year, according to Skoudis.
“In 2024, we can expect a surge in malicious AI-generated content. With the backdrop of an election year, nefarious individuals will create fake content, including deep fakes and an overwhelming volume of misleading textual and photographic information. This onslaught aims to confuse and manipulate voters. The repercussions may include rumors, innuendo, and potentially spear-phishing and other targeted attacks against political parties and candidates.”
5. Ravi Pandey, sr. director of vulnerability management services at Securin on future cyberattacks and defense
“Cyberattacks overall are expected to increase; ransomware groups are targeting vendors, government agencies, and critical infrastructure in the United States. Over the past five years, cyberattacks have surged, and this trend shows no signs of slowing down as cybercriminals move to target supply chains and zero-day vulnerabilities with relentless voracity. Breaches like the MOVEit file-transfer tool will continue to see lasting reach and have a ripple effect across organizations with its impact.”
How can AI help threat actors: “With the assistance of AI, particularly generative AI (GenAI) technology, attackers will be able to refine their techniques, increasing their speed and effectiveness. GenAI will allow criminal cyber groups to quickly fabricate convincing phishing emails and messages to gain initial access into an organization.”
How can AI help organizational cyber defense: Automation of preventative measures, including attack surface management, asset discovery, incident disclosure, and threat exposure management. “Specialized testing of AI applications will soon become a standard practice to assess their security and will be used to find potential vulnerabilities within companies’ networks.”
See More: The Growing Influence of State CISOs
Other Cybersecurity Predictions for 2024
1. Scott Kannry, CEO and co-founder of Axio, on the role of CISOs
At Black Hat Europe 2023, former Uber CSO Joe Sullivan underlined the unease that has gripped security leadership as the government’s stern stance on cybersecurity, while palpable, has caused some trepidation. He shared his experience of being convicted but let off with minimum sentencing and compared it with the ongoing proceedings against SolarWinds CISO Tim Brown.
Kannry shared his two cents on how the CISO/CSO role will evolve in 2024. “CISOs will assume an elevated position in the boardroom in 2024 – whether they like it or not. 2023 saw a tectonic shift in the role of the CISO, highlighted by the SEC’s cyber rules and the latest SEC actions against SolarWinds. The SolarWinds case is big news, resulting in negative commentary directed at the SEC. SolarWinds itself warned that the SEC’s actions will be damaging to the cybersecurity profession.”
“The reality is that cybersecurity will take its place in an organization’s fiduciary responsibilities in 2024, making the individual ultimately responsible for cybersecurity on the same plane as CFOs, CEOs, and the other directors and officers of the organization (who are covered by D&O Liability Insurance).”
During Black Hat Europe 2023, Sullivan noted that security leadership roles must evolve to accommodate the technicalities associated with cybersecurity in the company’s boardroom. Kannry agrees.
“If cyber leaders want to take on this responsibility (and burden), they will have to be reasonably informed of cyber risks faced by the organization and able to communicate those risks to investors,” Kannry continued.
“If they don’t take the responsibility, the organization will be forced to appoint someone to bear this burden. This role will become responsible for understanding cyber risks and developing strategy, working closely with the technical leader to execute that strategy. In this scenario, a Business Information Security Officer (BISO) becomes the responsible party while the CISO serves as the technical leader.”
See More: The State of AI in Cybersecurity 2023: The “Lake Wobegon Effect”
2. Brad Hibbert, COO and chief strategy officer and Alastair Parr, SVP Products and Services, Prevalent, on third-party risks
“Third-party risk management is no longer an experiment; it’s an expectation,” the duo noted, as the fallout from the MOVEit vulnerability and regulatory pressure rises. “This maturation has solidified its position as a table stakes element in organizational risk management decision-making. Therefore, despite economic uncertainty, inflation, and labor shortages, investment in third-party risk management (TPRM) is expected to remain consistent into 2024.”
“Board-level and executive-level engagement in TPRM will persist due to continued third-party security incidents and regulatory pressure. While challenges in finding skilled TPRM practitioners may continue, efficiency and effectiveness in TPRM programs will improve thanks to generative AI, machine learning, data analysis, enhanced automation, and program outsourcing.”
3. Ratan Tipirneni, president and CEO of Tigera, on Kubernetes security
Tipirneni is concerned that Kubernetes adoption doesn’t correspond to the efforts undertaken to secure container orchestration. “We will see breaches related to Kubernetes in high-profile companies,” Tipirneni said.
“While Kubernetes adoption has taken off, most Kubernetes teams haven’t implemented adequate posture management controls. They continue to implement the minimal level of security mandated by compliance requirements. This bubble is about to burst.”
Closing Thoughts
Secureworks and Cybersecurity Ventures assessed in Boardroom Cybersecurity Report 2023 that cybercriminal activities are expected to cost organizations $9.5 trillion in 2024 and $10.5 trillion in 2025. For comparison, the estimated losses from cybercrime in 2015 were $3 trillion.
Breaking the $9.5 trillion down, it comes to:
- $793 billion per month
- $182.5 billion per week
- $26 billion per day
- $1 billion per hour
- $18 million per minute
- $302,000 per second
These cost estimates encompass damage and destruction of data, stolen money, lost productivity, theft of intellectual property, theft of personal and financial data, embezzlement, fraud, post-attack disruption to the normal course of business, forensic investigation, restoration and deletion of hacked data and systems, reputational harm, legal costs, and potentially, regulatory fines.
To counter this, cybersecurity spending is expected to continue to grow. Gartner estimated global cybersecurity and risk management spending to grow 14.3% year-over-year to $215 billion. But is that enough?
Where do you see cybersecurity investments to go? Share with us on LinkedIn, X, or Facebook. We’d love to hear from you!
Image source: Shutterstock
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