Has OpenAI Lost Its Charm?
Traffic to OpenAI’s ChatGPT website fell almost 10% in June. Is the generative AI trend already losing steam?
- Despite launching with a bang in November 2022 and making headlines, OpenAI’s ChatGPT seems to be reeling from $540 million in losses.
- What’s the way forward for tools like ChatGPT as the generative AI trend seems to be fizzling out as multiple experts warn against the threat of unchecked AI evolution?
Michael Jordan once said, “People build you up to tear you down.” For a while, the public was inundated with TV advertisements as children declared, “If I could be like Mike.” Then suddenly, overnight, it seemed, the press was probing and interrogating his every move. I thought of Mr. Jordan while writing this article because it only seemed like yesterday when all everyone was talking about was ChatGPT.
Since its release in November 2022, ChatGPT has garnered the headlines of just about every media outlet. Many credit it with the dawning of a whole new era of efficiency and productivity for companies of every industry. We see stories of how everyone is using ChatGPT to write better resumes and emails or create better graphics.
Then there are the endless clickbait ads on the Internet that promise to inform you how ChatGPT can find your lost money or turn $100 into $1,000. Just as Michael Jordan was the most well-known sports athlete on the planet for a while, ChatGPT was the best-known AI app, hands down, for a while.
See More: ChatGPT’s User Growth Declines for the First Time Since Launch
Fewer Downloads for ChatGPT and Bing
According to some, the celebrity status of ChatGPT is ending. For the first time since its launch, the mobile and desktop traffic for ChatGPT declined by 9.7% month-over-month in June globally. Analysts at the Bank of America point out that the number of iPhone downloads for the ChatGPT or BING apps fell by 38% in May (the ChatGPT app is currently only available for iPhone) while visits to the ChatGPT website were down 11% every month.
They also point out that Google’s search engine market share rose somewhat year over year to over 92%, sending Bing’s share to a paltry 2.8%. In fact, Bing’s market share peaked one month before the release of ChatGPT at 3.59%. I admit I had to double-check that figure to confirm that. If you consider just desktops alone, the global market share stands at 7.14%, though that is nothing to be proud of.
As a ChatGPT user, I can vouch that it has not influenced my search engine preference. As far as the decreasing number of downloads, it was reported that just yesterday, there were more than 70 million downloads of Meta’s Twitter-like app called Threads. I predict they won’t hit that number again in one day, but that doesn’t mean its popularity is already waning. As another example, Tesla sales in the U.S. grew by 280% in 2018 but only by 105% last year. Such growth can’t accelerate unabated.
As for the number of visits to the ChatGPT website, there were a number of curious onlookers who initially visited the ChatGPT website to see what the hoopla was all about, and now they have moved on to another shiny object. Some point out that the sudden decrease in web visits to ChatGPT is due to college and K12 school students being out for the summer who are no longer using it to write papers and complete their homework.
The Threat of Open-Source AI
The presumed downfall of Open AI’s generative AI solution is attributed to more than just falling numbers. Some believe that open-source AI threatens OpenAI’s current dominance. According to a document shared by a senior software engineer at Google, open-source technology is quietly advancing and outshining the efforts of OpenAI and Google in the AI race. He states that existing open-source models are more customizable, faster, and more useful than Google’s. I decided to ask ChatGPT itself if it felt threatened by open-source AI. Here is how it answered:
“As an artificial intelligence developed by OpenAI, I don’t have feelings or personal concerns. I don’t feel threatened or safe because I don’t experience consciousness or emotions. My purpose is to assist users by providing information and answering questions to the best of my knowledge and abilities.”
Spoken like a true politician, I would say. ChatGPT may run for office one day. It probably can’t do any worse than the usual politicians we elect globally.
See More: What Is the Difference Between Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning?
The Need for Transparency
Concerns aside, there are quite a few benefits to open-source AI. The first is transparency. AI systems must be transparent in their operation and decision-making. That means the outcomes they blurt out in seconds must be explainable in a way that non-technical people understand.
People need to trust the answers and recommendations that generative AI applications produce. This means their creators and managers must be transparent in collecting and using the data. How much do we really know about OpenAI? How much do we understand about the data pipelines that feed ChatGPT?
Another significant benefit of open source is the decreased likelihood of cognitive biases that plague people’s perception, judgment and decision-making. Humans created AI, and all humans are guilty of this to some degree as individuals. Biasness isn’t necessarily injected purposely.
Despite its best efforts, Amazon still created a hiring algorithm that discriminated against women, probably more so than any human HR department today. ChatGPT certainly has a degree of cognitive bias as well, but by incorporating analysis by a wider diversity of thought and perspective, we can at least hope to diminish the biased nature of AI code. Realistically, however, we may never be able to eradicate it completely.
See More: What Is HCI (Human-Computer Interaction)? Meaning, Importance, Examples, and Goals
The Early Innings
It is important to remember that we are in the early stages of AI. We might be at the top of the third if it were a baseball game. While plenty of “experts” think they know where all of this is going, they are just guessing. As I have written about in an earlier article, change happens incrementally. The Segway and Google Glass didn’t make the impact many experts thought, and we still drive motor vehicles on pavement for the most part despite the certainty of automotive authorities.
While most websites are hosted on Linux servers, and a growing number of apps are hosted on Kubernetes containers, people still use closed technology devices such as iPhones and Windows 11 laptops. Open and closed technologies both have their strengths and weaknesses, and that debate will continue. In the end, it is too early to declare ChatGPT, the winner or write it off as another celebrity that had its 15 minutes in the sun. ChatGPT may have lost its novelty, but it is still charming millions of users.
Are ChatGPT and similar generative AI tools simply a part of a short-lived trend? Share with us on Facebook, Twitter, and LinkedIn. We’d love to hear from you!
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