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23 things we think will happen in 2023

Vox

It’s important to remember that each prediction is made probabilistically, meaning we assign each event a probability of between 10 and 95 percent. You can read our review of our 2022 predictions here.) — Bryan Walsh. Larry Hogan would challenge Trump in 2020! Ron DeSantis, who has emerged as his most likely challenger.

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24 things we think will happen in 2024

Vox

Rather, it means that if we made five predictions or 10 predictions, we’d expect four or nine of them to come true, respectively. As political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien have noted, “polls from the beginning of the election year have virtually no predictive power” when it comes to calling presidential races.

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